It seems hard to believe that the man who hatched perhaps the most audacious, notorious terrorist plan in modern history; managed to lure the US into a costly (in price but more importantly, in lives), endless war we have so vaguely titled “War on Terror”; and made his face an icon for the modern age (up there with Hitler and Guevara), that man – Osama bin Laden – is dead. I hardly felt like he was ever alive. For years we have heard his name and image thrown around in movies, in music, in art, in t-shits, in posters, toilet paper and perhaps a million other commodities. Osama had become the poster-child for the “Age of Terror”, an era our leaders have promoted as ceaselessly insecure and militant. Now he is dead, but what does it mean? Well, ask most foreign policy commentators and scholars, not much. The blood-lust that has influenced and guided our adventures abroad for so long has finally been abated to some extent and perhaps those who suffered in some way (be it directly or from the death of a loved one) can find some ease in knowing this fact. However, the reality is America is still in a pretty dire situation overall. This makes it all the more necessary to pay a quick good bye and move on, without squandering too much of our precious attention.
In fact, although the head of the world’s most notorious Islamic terrorist group, Al Qaeda, may be severed, it need not be said that the creature is a Chimera, or perhaps numerous small Chimeras. Even more importantly, Al Qaeda itself has been on the wane for several years. Indeed, if we look at events in the Middle East today, the notion of some totalitarian pan-Islamic regime taking over seems more unpopular among Muslims themselves than ever before. The fall of Mubarak, the civil war in Libya, the protests in Syria and the invasion of Bahrain by Saudi Arabia (the Islamic world’s leading tyranny, one of our closest allies in the region) has shown to Muslims that the ideas and values of a group like Al Qaeda’s are neither feasible nor desirable. As noted Harvard professor and author Stephen Walt has stated, “Instead, the upheavals that have swept the Arab world in 2011 have drawn their inspiration not from bin Laden but from more universal ideals of democracy, human rights, and open discourse.”[1]Muslims may now feel that they no longer need to partake in radical clandestine movements across the dunya, they can affect change through their own governments; through democracy.
Does this mean that America is nice and happy with the Middle East? Not quite. In fact, the democratic upheavals, although suited to the old Bush rhetoric, are not favorable to America, which has historical tended to prefer manageable right-wing totalitarian governments it can speak to and bribe directly. The evidence from Egypt is a perfect example. Although the Egyptians are now singing songs of freedom (even with the military maintaining an uneasy control over the country), the statistics show that hostility towards the US is higher than ever before, as Glenn Greenwald of Salon.com has pointed out:
In one of the most strategically important countries in that region – a nation that has been a close U.S. ally for decades – public opinion toward the U.S. is as low as (if not lower than) ever, more than two years into the Obama presidency. Consider the recent Egyptian public opinion history toward the U.S.[2]
A few months ago this would not have mattered since governments friendly to us were in control, not so much the case anymore. The Middle East has changed since the days of mainstream terrorist organizations (oh, I hardly remember thee and thy colored alerts!). These statistics in Egypt are not unique; and nor should we expect anything different if the revolutions ultimately succeed in other neighboring countries.
Should we be angry at the Middle East? Absolutely… not! America waited until the very last moment to act in favor of Egyptians against Mubarak; meanwhile we remained silent as Saudi Arabia clamped down on protests in the most undemocratic way possible (effectively putting the country under police control and declaring all protests “unIslamic”) and even invaded neighboring Bahrain to keep an unpopular minority Sunni tyranny in power. America’s reaction to the Palestinian decision to go unilateral has also done very little to endear us to a Middle East (or the world itself for that matter), which is getting more and more frustrated with the unquestioned support for Israel. This is especially important since, as the ancien régime of the Middle East is toppled, the stability for so long maintained between those countries and Israel (which was maintained through bribery) seems to buckle. Once again, Egypt is a great example. As per a recent poll, more Egyptians than ever before are reconsidering their position with Israel: “54 percent want to annul the peace treaty with Israel, compared with 36 percent who want to maintain it.”[3]
Iraq is not the only place falling to Iranian interests. Recent evidence suggests that the Middle East itself seems to prefer the notion of a nuclear Iran. As much as 50-60% of Middle Easterners agree in this regard. This is not just a Shiite/Sunni thing,[4] as it applies to Egypt, a largely Sunni country, and to a large portion of Saudis. The increasingly friendly relations between Iran and Turkey are a great example of this. The two nations have been considered hostile since their old imperial days. The evidence is clear: the Arab Spring is also an expression of the greater desire for unity among Arabs and Muslims in general. As this happens, expect nations such as Turkey and Iran to play a greater role, and expect Israel to be more and more alarmed. If they are smart, they will be persuaded by this to approve a more lenient policy towards the Palestinians. If they don’t, they may have to face the greatest amount of isolation since the 73 war.
If things seem bad there, they are worse in Iraq. The weakening of America has meant much for the now untouchable Iran, which has been pushing its influence on its old enemy: “American officials are now practically pleading with an Iraqi government moving ever closer to the Iranians to let some American forces remain at a few giant bases beyond the official end-of-2011 withdrawal date.[5] “ If America outstays its welcome, it may have to endure another period of renewed insurgency that could fling our attention back to the war we thought we ended! And if that sounds bad, Afghanistan and Pakistan are not going much better. The latter, exacerbated by years of drone strikes that have destabilized entire sections of the country and killed, according to Pakistani HRCP estimates, as many as 900 civilians as of 2010, is now moving away from the US and have been bold enough to try and influence neighboring Afghanistan to follow suit, recommending China.[6] This is no doubt partly influenced by the images revealed by German newspaper Der Spiegel of a group of US soldiers, who formed into “kill teams”, posing next to murdered civilians, in a revelation that NATO has claimed to be worse than Abu Ghraib.[7]
America may have killed one man, but it is losing its goal. Celebrating and cheering for the death of a man whose fervent religiosity has for so long prepared him for such a day seems somewhat strange. He may not win, but he doesn’t seem to lose. The death he has caused, and which our leaders blindly brought upon us as they made the deal with the Taliban so many years back in an effort to wear down the Soviets, cannot be reversed. 3 trillion plus dollars have been wasted; hundreds upon hundreds of thousands have died; thousands have been detained without due process and without any real charges[8]; many have been tortured; and 6000+ Coalition troops (vast majority American) will never come home to their loved ones… but one man is dead. Maybe we should save the cheers and exultation and try and consider what exactly has transpired; what excuses our leaders have given us and what we have given to them in order to achieve such a “victory”. I would call this a Phyrric victory, but it would be an insult to Pyrrhus.
If we played this right, we can perhaps try and move to a more rational and less militant position, but that is what people were hoping for at the end of the Cold War as well and very soon discovered how different the perspective of the leaders were... and we have been led to this point! Osama is dead, but the permanent state of war and alarm continues, a war we can neither afford to lose nor win.
[1] http://walt.foreignpolicy.com/
[2] http://www.salon.com/news/opinion/glenn_greenwald/2011/04/26/egypt/index.html
[3] http://www.salon.com/news/opinion/glenn_greenwald/2011/04/26/egypt/index.html
[4] http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Foreign-Policy/2010/0806/New-poll-angry-at-US-Arabs-support-an-Iran-nuclear-bomb
[5]http://www.tomdispatch.com/post/175382/tomgram%3A_noam_chomsky%2C_who_owns_the_world/
[6]http://oilandglory.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/04/27/whats_wrong_with_china_becoming_afghanistans_main_patron
[7] http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,754147,00.html. Article also found in Rolling Stone: http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/the-kill-team-20110327#add-comment-or-reply
[8] 150 innocent men were knowingly imprisoned as a Wikileaks cable has recently shown: http://www.democracynow.org/2011/4/25/wikileaks_documents_reveal_us_knowingly_imprisoned
